Food Security

In northern Kenya in 2009, a devastating drought lead to famine and starvation. Here two women stand with a bag of distributed food [13].

On the surface, the predicted decrease in crop yield of up to 14.7% by 2050 seems relatively minor. However, such a drop is likely to have an enormous effect on food security for sub-Saharan Africa, for two major reasons. First, the population of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to increase by as much as 108% by 2050, creating an enormous increase in demand [12]. Secondly, these numbers gloss over the fact that there isn’t going to be a constant, gradual decrease in crop yields. Climate is variable from year to year, and some years will be significantly warmer and drier than others. During especially hot years, there may be steep declines in yield or outright crop failure, which would precipitate spikes in food prices.

A recent report by Oxfam suggests that by 2030, maize prices could increase 177% above the current level, with roughly half that rise due to climate change and half due to other factors, such as the increasing global population. The Oxfam report also makes use of recent efforts by the IPCC to model the impact of extreme weather events on food prices. Using the IPCC model they found, for example, that in 2030 a drought and subsequent flooding in South Africa comparable to an event that occurred in 1995 could increase average consumer maize prices in the region by about 120%. This type of short-term shock would likely lead to far worse outcomes than gradual long-term price increases, because it gives consumers little time to adapt [7].

In the past, extreme high temperature events have led to enormous spikes in international food prices. For example, extreme summer temperatures in the USSR in 1972 led wheat prices to increase from $60/ton in 1972 to $208/ton in 1974. This example highlights the complexity of food prices. Part of the reason for the spike was that the USSR was forced to begin importing wheat, creating a large increase in wheat demand on the world market [6]. Additionally, food shortages may cause nations to cease food exports, creating supply deficits and further driving up prices.

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